Five minutes later, you open it up, the steam pours out, the dishes. Dishwashers, we did the dishwasher, right? You press it - remember the dishwasher, you press it, boom, they’d be like an explosion. You turn on the shower, you’re not allowed to have any water anymore. You have areas where there’s so much water you don’t know what to do with it.Here are the statements from this week’s Fake News game: Then we discussed this clip from Derren Brown – The System:Īnd finally, we discussed p-hacking. In the Fallacy in the Wild, we looked at this clip from Numb3rs: Afterward, we pick one that was, & say “that one was the right one”, drawing a target around the bullet-hole Īnd we compared two recruitment firm’s very different takes on how Brexit has affected recruitment in the City. You’d expect some to be close by sheer chance.
Re MRP: is there a potential Texas sharpshooter fallacy here? There were dozens of polls, projections, forecasts &c in 2017. In Mark’s British Politics Corner, we talked about the fact that YouGov’s strong showing in their 2016 poll was an inevitable by product of lots of polls happening: Marist/NPR/PBS Poll shows President Trump’s approval rating among Latinos going to 50%, an increase in one year of 19%.
We started out with this clip of Trump talking about job numbers in January 2017:Īnd we followed that up with this clip where he claims he intended for the entire UN General Assembly to laugh at him:Īnd finally we talked about this tweet where he picks the only good result from a very bad poll: It’s based on a story where an inexperienced gunman fires indiscriminately at the side of a barn, and then draws a target around the largest cluster of bullet holes. The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy describes a situation where someone collects or examines a large amount of data without deciding in advance exactly what they’re testing, then chooses a sample which provides evidence for their existing opinion.
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